Comments on: More Local, Less Convenient and Less Often – the Future of Travel and Tourism after Peak Oil? http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/ Travel industry thinking from Stephen Budd and Vicky Brock at Highland Business Research Fri, 18 Dec 2009 11:35:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.1 hourly 1 By: Karen Bryan http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-747 Karen Bryan Thu, 20 Mar 2008 08:16:22 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-747 I started to focus on the UK. Scotland in particular in my travel website. This was partly because I thought as oil prices increased consumers would have to curtail trips overseas and I also wanted to highlight how much there is to do and see in the UK to move away from the mentality, "holiday=jump up plane". I've been amazed as I've travelled around Scotland, even in areas I thought I knew, by how many interesting things I've discovered. I'm planning a Best of Britain off the beaten track blogging tour, so if anyone would like to be my guide to show me round the hidden gems in your locale or sponsor the tour please contact me. I believe there needs to be more publicity promoting domestic tourism, making it more appealing to potential visitors rather than just a forced option because flights are too expensive. I started to focus on the UK. Scotland in particular in my travel website. This was partly because I thought as oil prices increased consumers would have to curtail trips overseas and I also wanted to highlight how much there is to do and see in the UK to move away from the mentality, “holiday=jump up plane”.

I’ve been amazed as I’ve travelled around Scotland, even in areas I thought I knew, by how many interesting things I’ve discovered.

I’m planning a Best of Britain off the beaten track blogging tour, so if anyone would like to be my guide to show me round the hidden gems in your locale or sponsor the tour please contact me.

I believe there needs to be more publicity promoting domestic tourism, making it more appealing to potential visitors rather than just a forced option because flights are too expensive.

]]> By: Stephen http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-741 Stephen Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:34:29 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-741 Hi William I think you and Ian above are of a similar mind on this issue. "In the meantime I would all come visit British Columbia before you can’t afford it anymore" - actually, I quite like the look of those jobs you got going at Tourism BC at the moment...! (Note to current clients and business partners: I'm not really about to skip the country). Hi William

I think you and Ian above are of a similar mind on this issue.

“In the meantime I would all come visit British Columbia before you can’t afford it anymore” – actually, I quite like the look of those jobs you got going at Tourism BC at the moment…!

(Note to current clients and business partners: I’m not really about to skip the country).

]]> By: Stephen http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-740 Stephen Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:17:45 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-740 Thanks Ian for a note of optimism. I'm aware that in peak oil debates, there is a tendency to think the end is nigh and it's useful to have a different view. I think it is undoubtedly true that the market will come up with more efficient means of using fuel - European cars have always been a good example of the market responding to higher local energy prices than in the US in terms of their fuel efficiency. I remain a little sceptical about the role of biofuels though and but recognise that these hold the key to a lot of the problems. My issue at the moment is that they need to be a hell of a lot more efficient than they presently are in order not to complete with the food chain. The Scotsman reported recently that the burning of the biofuels in "specially-produced plants will begin in 2009 and, by 2013, [and] ScottishPower hopes they will have replaced five per cent of the coal they currently use. The firm said planting would have a minimal effect on land used for food crops. The project will use about 12 per cent of Scotland's agricultural land - around 35,000 hectares." I appreciate that the laws of trade and comparative advantage come into play here (meaning that in a stable world we do not necessarily need agricultural land to fulfill our own fuel needs) but 12% of Scotland's agricultural land to supply just 5% of the fuel at two of the six power stations dependent on fossil fuels strikes me as being quite high. It also strikes me that if we are indeed absorbing the cost, doesn't this mean that money we might have spent on one thing now gets diverted to covering fuel? Thanks Ian for a note of optimism. I’m aware that in peak oil debates, there is a tendency to think the end is nigh and it’s useful to have a different view.

I think it is undoubtedly true that the market will come up with more efficient means of using fuel – European cars have always been a good example of the market responding to higher local energy prices than in the US in terms of their fuel efficiency.

I remain a little sceptical about the role of biofuels though and but recognise that these hold the key to a lot of the problems. My issue at the moment is that they need to be a hell of a lot more efficient than they presently are in order not to complete with the food chain.

The Scotsman reported recently that the burning of the biofuels in “specially-produced plants will begin in 2009 and, by 2013, [and] ScottishPower hopes they will have replaced five per cent of the coal they currently use. The firm said planting would have a minimal effect on land used for food crops. The project will use about 12 per cent of Scotland’s agricultural land – around 35,000 hectares.”

I appreciate that the laws of trade and comparative advantage come into play here (meaning that in a stable world we do not necessarily need agricultural land to fulfill our own fuel needs) but 12% of Scotland’s agricultural land to supply just 5% of the fuel at two of the six power stations dependent on fossil fuels strikes me as being quite high.

It also strikes me that if we are indeed absorbing the cost, doesn’t this mean that money we might have spent on one thing now gets diverted to covering fuel?

]]> By: William Bakker http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-739 William Bakker Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:31:09 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-739 Thanks for this uplifting piece Stephen. Although I agree with most of your assessment my hopes are also vested on the economic principle that when it becomes economically viable to switch to alternative (sustainable) sources of energy, a surge of innovation will fill the fossil fuel void. In the meantime I would all come visit British Columbia before you can't afford it anymore. Cheers, William Thanks for this uplifting piece Stephen. Although I agree with most of your assessment my hopes are also vested on the economic principle that when it becomes economically viable to switch to alternative (sustainable) sources of energy, a surge of innovation will fill the fossil fuel void.

In the meantime I would all come visit British Columbia before you can’t afford it anymore.

Cheers,

William

]]> By: Ian Yeoman http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-737 Ian Yeoman Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:31:01 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-737 Oil and energy are facilitating world inflation. But today, it is not like the 1970's. The UK economy is not as dependent on oil as previous generations, because of efficiency measures or others types of energy. The world has continued to grow despite record oil prices, mainly because we have had the ability to absorb the cost. However, oil is the biggest cost for airlines rather than labour. High oil prices means more efficent aircraft both in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Airlines are buying new aircraft because of this. By 2030, aircraft will reduce their C02 emissions by 50%. Higher oil prices means it is economic to invest in alternative fuel sources such as renewal energy or hydrogen. In the future, airlines will fly using GM biofuels - which don't complete with the food chain. Higher oil prices means more innovation and development. High oil prices means Scotland's oil industry will last longer. Higher oil prices means we search for solutions and action change. Oil and energy are facilitating world inflation. But today, it is not like the 1970’s. The UK economy is not as dependent on oil as previous generations, because of efficiency measures or others types of energy. The world has continued to grow despite record oil prices, mainly because we have had the ability to absorb the cost. However, oil is the biggest cost for airlines rather than labour. High oil prices means more efficent aircraft both in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Airlines are buying new aircraft because of this. By 2030, aircraft will reduce their C02 emissions by 50%. Higher oil prices means it is economic to invest in alternative fuel sources such as renewal energy or hydrogen. In the future, airlines will fly using GM biofuels – which don’t complete with the food chain.
Higher oil prices means more innovation and development. High oil prices means Scotland’s oil industry will last longer. Higher oil prices means we search for solutions and action change.

]]> By: Stephen http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-736 Stephen Wed, 19 Mar 2008 10:21:38 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-736 Thanks Nathan. I think that the 'boiling a frog' strategy to change is the most likely way that this will play out as you describe. People's expectations will change imperceptibly and come into line with what they can afford without there being a revolution-inspiring rupture. I also agree that localism, which is now a consumer choice, does present a possible coping strategy and I think this is one of the silver linings to the whole thing. Not sure about the FTP business - I would be afraid of being hacked and being routed to work as a slave in a Russian crack den instead of my intended relaxing destination in the Bahamas... Thanks Nathan.

I think that the ‘boiling a frog’ strategy to change is the most likely way that this will play out as you describe. People’s expectations will change imperceptibly and come into line with what they can afford without there being a revolution-inspiring rupture.

I also agree that localism, which is now a consumer choice, does present a possible coping strategy and I think this is one of the silver linings to the whole thing.

Not sure about the FTP business – I would be afraid of being hacked and being routed to work as a slave in a Russian crack den instead of my intended relaxing destination in the Bahamas…

]]> By: Nathan http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-735 Nathan Wed, 19 Mar 2008 10:12:39 +0000 http://blog.highlandbusinessresearch.com/2008/03/19/more-local-less-convenient-and-less-often-the-future-of-travel-and-tourism-after-peak-oil/#comment-735 Well... unless we reach the singularity before we reach peak oil I think you're right to be concerned. And much as I like the idea of just ftp'ing myself to Australia, I've never taken Ray Kurzweil terribly seriously ;) Eventually consumer behaviour in and media coverage of travel will realign themselves according to the new limitations. People's wants are very much conditioned by what is available, so I think a big part of it is for how long the 'memory' of being able to travel farther persists. It's not exactly comparing like with like, but localism has become aspirational in food and hospitality (remember when it seemed exciting and sexy to shop in a supermarket?). Looking at how that happened might suggest a few coping strategies. Nice post, by the way... Well… unless we reach the singularity before we reach peak oil I think you’re right to be concerned. And much as I like the idea of just ftp’ing myself to Australia, I’ve never taken Ray Kurzweil terribly seriously ;)

Eventually consumer behaviour in and media coverage of travel will realign themselves according to the new limitations. People’s wants are very much conditioned by what is available, so I think a big part of it is for how long the ‘memory’ of being able to travel farther persists.

It’s not exactly comparing like with like, but localism has become aspirational in food and hospitality (remember when it seemed exciting and sexy to shop in a supermarket?). Looking at how that happened might suggest a few coping strategies.

Nice post, by the way…

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